"The most serious threat to Canada's survival is no longer military
attack, but the pull and push of the U.S. economy and its entertainment
industry." Thus wrote Janice Gross Stein last week. If this is Canada's
greatest threat, we are indeed a blessed nation. But is it true?
Canada has enjoyed a century and a half of peace with the U.S.
And thanks to the prosperity that has come with good relations,
over a third of our total wealth is derived from U.S. markets. Hollywood
has been in business most of this century, but we are still around.
Can you imagine the outrage in Toronto and Vancouver if, as some
Americans propose, the US were to ban offshore production of Hollywood
films? If the entertainment industry is our most serious threat,
why did Ottawa licence giant ears on our southern boundary to capture
popular programmes from the US television networks and carried them
by cable into virtually every Canadian household? We know why. Canadians
wanted them.
The truth is there are probably no two nations in the world which,
thanks to shared values and cultural affinities, have enjoyed a
more enduring friendship. This probably explains why Canadians tend
to think of foreign policy as relating to everything in the world
- the U.N., the Third World, the Commonwealth - except the United
States. Many of us take our relations with the US for granted. We
believe that the U.S. has an obligation to be nice to us whether
or not we are nice to them. But if our political survival does not
depend on relations with the US, our prosperity does. That is why
the greatest foreign policy challenge for Canada is the management
of our relations with the US.
Because of the enormous disparity between our size, wealth and
power, there is a profound asymmetry in our respective foreign policies;
the Americans' biggest foreign policy challenge is assuredly not
the management of its relationship with Canada. This places Canada
in a particularly vulnerable position. Our vulnerability is further
enhanced by two other asymmetries.
While there is a high degree of economic integration between our
two countries, there is absolutely no political integration. Consequently,
unlike in the case of the European Community, there are no common
political bodies which can guarantee Canadian participation in US
decision-making and thus help ensure fairness.
The third asymmetry compounds the effect of the other two. At
the Canadian national level, political power is concentrated in
the federal cabinet while in the US it is far more dispersed, even
atomised. US Senators and Congressmen exercise power analogous to
the executive in a parliamentary system; they routinely initiate
legislation and administrative actions in response to protectionist-minded
special interests. The devastating history of measures taken against
our softwood-lumber is particularly illustrative. Yet one must not
lose sight of the fact that the President wields far greater influence
with the Congress than any foreign power could ever aspire to.
While threats to our economic and other interests can arise from
within the executive branch (e.g. split-runs
and new restrictions on defence contracting), most disputes, from
softwood to Helms-Burton,
seem to originate in the Congress and associated regulatory bodies.
Such threats are not only deeply damaging; they are almost never
definitively resolved. For this reason, Canada cannot be merely
responsive; notwithstanding the risks, it must make itself part
of the US internal process.
Thus, the supreme Canadian challenge is to manage relations not
just with "the government of the United States", but with a highly
fragmented system of governance in the most powerful nation in the
world.
What does this mean for the actual conduct of our relations with
the United States?
First and foremost, the relationship must be the constant preoccupation
of the Prime Minister. History has shown that, aside from our constitutional
problems, getting relations right with the US is the biggest political
challenge of a Canadian Prime Minister. He cannot delegate his relationship
with the most powerful single player in the US system. There is
no better way - sometimes no other way - to engage the President
than through personal relations. No Canadian leader recognized the
truth of this more than Brian Mulroney whose hands-on diplomacy
delivered agreements on free-trade, acid-rain, and Arctic sovereignty.
Second, Canadian-US relations must also be the constant preoccupation
of the Canadian foreign minister. Surprisingly, the effort to master
the intricacies of the US political system has not been a priority
of most Canadian foreign ministers; they have relegated the issues
to the second-tier. An exception was Alan MacEachan, foreign minister
in the last Trudeau Cabinet, who was responsible for the innovative
practice of conducting intensive quarterly meetings with his counterpart
George Shultz.
Third, there must be vigorous central supervision and control
in Ottawa. This can only be exercised by the Prime Minister in Cabinet.
Only in this manner can priorities be determined and damaging or
marginal initiatives stopped. It is difficult to believe there was
a firm hand at the controls when the Heritage Minister initiated
legislation on split-run advertising and excluded the Americans
from a conference of cultural Ministers in Ottawa which she convened
to consult on how to limit US cultural influence. To snub your neighbours
even as you try to cut deals is a disastrous strategy.
Fourth, Canada must be ready to explore arrangements and mechanisms
for addressing disputes with the U.S. It is remarkable there have
been so few. As the smaller power, this is certainly not to our
advantage. In the past, various mechanisms have been created and
disappeared -- for example, joint Cabinet Committee meetings.. Some
have not been effective, but others have, such as the NAFTA trade
panels, the International Joint Commission and foreign ministers'
quarterly sessions. Also important was the agreement (now defunct
?) to conduct annual official visits of the President and Prime
Minister to our respective capitals.
Formal arrangements ensure the more powerful partner focuses on
issues of the other. Moreover, they can gear up powerful bureaucratic
engines for this purpose. By binding the US to consultative arrangements,
we can reduce the number of surprises, and by creating binding
dispute mechanisms, we can reduce arbitrariness in the political
process of both countries. There are encouraging reports that Foreign
Minister Axworthy is examining ways to achieve a better conflict
resolution process and a new high-level forum to address disputes.
The challenge will be to convince the US to agree.
Fifth, Canada should deploy a "multiplicity of instruments" in
our dealings with the US at the federal and state level. The complexity
of the US political system, the power of individual legislators
and the vast array of political players should encourage us to deploy
as many channels into the US system as possible, including ministers,
parliamentarians, provincial leaders, business executives, senior
officials, lobbyists and others. Canadian influence cannot be too
widely spread. This raises the risk of inconsistent messages on
Canada's part, as well as difficulties in timing, co-ordination
and management. But increased risks are worth taking, provided there
is a single location in the Canadian political system where all
aspects of the relationship come together. It is to the credit of
the Chrétien Government that it has given strong support to
the Canadian Ambassador in Washington and his staff in managing
the relationship and influencing the direction of Canadian policies.